Pahrump, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

581
FXUS65 KVEF 151927
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1227 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to warm through Friday before
another potent weather system drops into the region over the
weekend, bringing strong gusty winds, a chance of precipitation, and
a drop in temperatures. Calmer and warmer weather is expected next
week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.

Low impact weather is expected through Friday. Weak height rises are
expected tonight which will keep winds calm and skies clear. On
Friday, a weak shortwave embedded in the mean flow will shift
through the region. This feature will be dry in the low levels but
have some mid to upper level moisture associated with, there will be
increasing clouds from northwest to southeast through the day, but
no rain is expected. An uptick in winds is possible as this piece of
energy moves through, but gusts should remain under 20 MPH in most
locations with gusts up to 25 MPH possible in the Mojave Desert wind-
prone areas. High temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees
warmer than today, which will be near normal for this time of the
year.

A stronger, more impactful trough will dig into the region this
weekend, which will bring potentially impactful winds and
precipitation chances. The main concern will be winds as widespread
gusty southwest winds will set up on Saturday as the pressure
gradient increases with the deepening system. A strengthening jet
also sets up across the Western Mojave Desert through southern Nevada
into Arizona. Probabilities for over 40 MPH gusts are over 50%
through this region, and many ensemble members show 40-50MPH gusts
on Saturday. Decided to issue a Wind Advisory for these areas as
confidence is high enough for wind impacts on Saturday. May need to
add some locations if confidence increases for gusty winds and wind
impacts, especially in Death Valley and the Sierra into the Owens
Valley, but did not have enough confidence that widespread wind
impacts will occur at this time in those areas. A few ensemble
members around Barstow, CA as well as Desert Rock, NV show 55 MPH+
wind gusts on Saturday, but do not have enough confidence for a High
Wind Watch/Warning now. Later shifts can now focus on adjusting
headlines and wind impact levels as we enter the hi-res model domain
and changes in probabilities lead to higher confidence. Southwest
winds will slowly diminish Saturday evening, with gusty wind and
wind impacts lingering the longest through the Western Mojave
Desert. On Sunday, winds will turn northwest as the trough axis
moves through. The best chance for wind impacts with gusts over 40
MPH on Sunday will be in Esmeralda, central Nye, and northern parts
of Inyo County as the front washes out as it moves further south.
Additional wind headlines may be needed on Sunday in parts of the
Southern Great Basin or the Owens Valley, but held off as confidence
was lower and it was uncertain how widespread the north wind impacts
would be on Sunday.

The best chance for precipitation will be through southern Nevada
and northern Mohave County where showers and thunderstorms may
develop Saturday and Sunday. This is where  PWATs will increase to
125 to 175 percent of normal (generally between 0.50 and 0.75
inches), which will allow for moderate-to-heavy rain rates beneath
any thunderstorms that develop, but generally light rainfall is
elsewhere. At this time, it looks like the greatest threat of
thunderstorms will be across central Nye and northern Lincoln
counties Saturday and across central Nye and the remainder of
Lincoln County Sunday. Further west, the forecast is trending drier
as moisture will be scoured out too quickly behind the trough axis.
Other than some light precipitation on the Sierra Crest, most of the
California zones should remain dry.

Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will cool slightly each day as the
system moves inland.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Wednesday.

Behind the trough, ridging sets up for the start of the work week
that will result in Las Vegas chances for 90 degrees rapidly
increasing through the week and "Moderate" HeatRisk (Level 2 on a
scale from 0 to 4) returning to the low valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
will remain light and variable until after 00Z when west-
southwesterly wind below 10kt. These winds will continue through
the night before becoming lighter from the northeast in a typical
diurnal pattern. Winds pick up Friday afternoon with south-
southwest winds gusting at times to near 20kt. FEW-SCT high clouds
with bases AOA 15kft will come through at times on Friday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light and variable
winds are on tap across the area into early afternoon today.
Mainly west to southwesterly winds will pick up this afternoon
with speeds below 10kt everywhere except DAG where westerly wind
gusting to near 20kt can be expected. Typical diurnal trends can
be expected tonight. Gusty southerly wind to 20kt will pick up at
the Colorado River TAF sites Friday afternoon. A shield of FEW-
SCT clouds will move across the area from northwest to southeast through
the day Friday but no significant CIGS are anticipated.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...Berc

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